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Pot Odds
JulesDogg wrote
at 9:52 AM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Pot Odds:
When you bet (or call a bet) you are, of course, trying to win the money that is already in the pot. How often do you have to win to make this profitable? Clearly not every time - if it costs you 10 to bet (or call) and there is 100 in the pot, then you'd be able to be wrong 9 times out of 10 and still break even. This is the essence of the pot odds: You're paying a fraction to win a larger sum. If you're more likely to win than you have to pay, then your bet/call is a winning move in the long run.

Let's try one of the standard examples for pot odds: The flush draw.

First you need to consider your odds on hitting the winning hand. In the case of a flush draw on the turn in hold'em, you're getting about 4-1 (actually 37-9, since there are 37 cards that will "miss" you, and 9 that will give you the flush, but 4-1 is a good enough approximation) if the flush will be the best hand. This means that the pot odds need to be 4-1 or better in order to make your draw profitable. For instance, if your pot odds are 3-1 (paying 10 to win 30) you would get this Expected Value calculation:

(-$10 x 37/46) + ($30 x 9/46) = -$8.04 + $5.86 = -$2.17


What does this mean? It means that if there's only $30 in the pot and you have to pay $10 to win it, you'll lose on average a little over $2 every time you do it. Not a good thing.

What if the pot was $50?
(-$10 x 37/46) + ($50 x 9/46) = -$8.04 + $9.78 = $1.74

Here, you average $1.74 profit for every call you make.

Outs and Odds:
An easy way to work out your pot odds is to count your outs (cards that improve your hand) and do this simple calculation.
Eg. You have a flush draw on the flop giving you 9 outs. For one card (the turn) multiply the outs by 2 then add 1, so 9x2+1=19. The answer 19 gives you the percentage chance of hitting so you have a 19% chance of making your flush on the turn.
That?s 19% in favour and 81% not in favour. This gives approximate pot odds of 81-19 or to simplify 4-1.
For two cards (the turn and the river) multiply your outs by 4, so for the flush draw with 9 outs you have a 9x4=36% chance of hitting your flush.
That?s 36% in favour and 64% not in favour. This gives approximate pot odds of 64-36 or to simplify 1.8-1
Memorising these might help:
20 outs = 0.5 to 1 (1 card) and 1.3 to 1 (2 cards)
19 outs = 0.5 to 1 (1 card) and 1.5 to 1 (2 cards)
18 outs = 0.6 to 1 (1 card) and 1.6 to 1 (2 cards)
17 outs = 0.7 to 1 (1 card) and 1.8 to 1 (2 cards)
16 outs = 0.8 to 1 (1 card) and 1.9 to 1 (2 cards)
15 outs = 0.8 to 1 (1 card) and 2.1 to 1 (2 cards)
14 outs = 1 to 1 (1 card) and 2.4 to 1 (2 cards)
13 outs = 1.1 to 1 (1 card) and 2.6 to 1 (2 cards)
12 outs = 1.2 to 1 (1 card) and 3 to 1 (2 cards)
11 outs = 1.4 to 1 (1 card) and 3.3 to 1 (2 cards)
10 outs = 1.6 to 1 (1 card) and 3.7 to 1 (2 cards)
9 outs = 1.9 to 1 (1 card) and 4 to 1 (2 cards)
8 outs = 2.2 to 1 (1 card) and 5 to 1 (2 cards)
7 outs = 2.6 to 1 (1 card) and 6 to 1 (2 cards)
6 outs = 3 to 1 (1 card) and 7 to 1 (2 cards)
5 outs = 4 to 1 (1 card) and 8 to 1 (2 cards)
4 outs = 5 to 1 (1 card) and 11 to 1 (2 cards)
3 outs = 7 to 1 (1 card) and 15 to 1 (2 cards)
2 outs = 11 to 1 (1 card) and 23 to 1 (2 cards)
1 outs = 23 to 1 (1 card) and 46 to 1 (2 cards)

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JulesDogg wrote
at 9:58 AM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
The odds given above are close approximations. If you want exact odds get your calculators out.

BTW www.pokerstove.com offers a great hold'em calculator and it's FREE !!
JulesDogg wrote
at 10:00 AM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Will this stop the maniac chasers? I doubt it.

I would appreciate any feedback.

Implied odds article coming soon.

coolchick wrote
at 10:17 AM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
But, I only just worked out that the red ones are worth the same as the black ones....and I still prefer red
JulesDogg wrote
at 10:21 AM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Coolchick, I love your wit, that comment is funny and made me laugh, Thnks : )
countCount wrote
at 11:32 AM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Thanks, very understandable. I may have trouble applying it to my game, although my nick might suggest otherwise. Still, better than earl or duke :).
El Brujo wrote
at 1:04 PM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Count, thanks for the feedback : )
Morechipsplease wrote
at 3:55 PM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Jules is this another one of your teasers? I think you have the odds transposed in the table.

For example the above says "10 outs = 1.6 to 1 (1 card) and 3.7 to 1 (2 cards)". Which would mean you are more likely to hit an out with one card to come than two.

Shouldn't this be 1.6 to 1 for 2 cards and 3.7 to 1 for 1 card?
JulesDogg wrote
at 4:34 PM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Chips, thank you for the correction. You are spot on I have mistakenly transposed the 1 card and 2 card odds. Cheers mate and thanks for pointing it out, I should proof read a couple of times before posting. I will amend and re-post.

: )
JulesDogg wrote
at 5:15 PM, Tuesday April 8, 2008 EDT
Amended outs and odds for post flop decisions

20 outs = 1.3 to 1 (1 card) and 0.5 to 1 (2 cards)

19 outs = 1.5 to 1 (1 card) and 0.5 to 1 (2 cards)

18 outs =1.6 to 1 (1 card) and 0.6 to 1 (2 cards)

17 outs = 1.8 to 1 (1 card) and 0.7 to 1 (2 cards)

16 outs = 1.9 to 1 (1 card) and 0.8 to 1 (2 cards)

15 outs = 2.1 to 1 (1 card) and 0.8 to 1 (2 cards) Flush draw with 2 overcards, also Flush + Open Ended Straight Draw

14 outs = 2.4 to 1 (1 card) and 1 to 1 (2 cards)

13 outs = 2.6 to 1 (1 card) and 1.1 to 1 (2 cards)

12 outs = 3 to 1 (1 card) and 1.2 to 1 (2 cards)

11 outs = 3.3 to 1 (1 card) and 1.4 to 1 (2 cards)

10 outs = 3.7 to 1 (1 card) and 1.6 to 1 (2 cards)

9 outs = 4 to 1 (1 card) and 1.9 to 1 (2 cards) Flush Draw

8 outs = 5 to 1 (1 card) and 2.2 to 1 (2 cards) Open ended straight draw

7 outs = 6 to 1 (1 card) and 2.6 to 1 (2 cards)

6 outs = 7 to 1 (1 card) and 3 to 1 (2 cards) Two Overcards

5 outs = 8 to 1 (1 card) and 4 to 1 (2 cards)

4 outs = 11 to 1 (1 card) and 5 to 1 (2 cards) Gut-shot draw

3 outs = 15 to 1 (1 card) and 7 to 1 (2 cards)

2 outs = 23 to 1 (1 card) and 11 to 1 (2 cards) Hitting a set with pockets

1 outs = 23 to 1 (1 card) and 46 to 1 (2 cards)

NB. All the above apply to post-flop considerations before the turn and river cards.

Abstract odds/ percentages chances:

Dealt pocket pair.......................................16 to 1

AA.................................................................220 to 1

Any AK.........................................................82 to 1

3 suit flop....................................................18 to1

2 suit flop....................................................55%

An A will flop (and no K) when you hold KK................ 23%

An A or K will flop (and no Q) when you hold QQ..... 43%

An A, K or Q will flop (and no J) when you hold JJ... 59%


Flop a set when you hold a pair....................7.5 to 1

Flop a flush when you hold 2 suits...............118 to 1

Completing a flush off 2 suited cards..........6%

Flopping a flush draw when you hold 2 suits......11%

Completing a flush draw by the river..................36%

Backdoor flush..........................................................4.2%

Set on flop completing to full house.....................33%

Pair of 2s beats AK (not suited)............................53%
JulesDogg wrote
at 9:03 AM, Thursday April 10, 2008 EDT
Come on folks, give some feedback. I thought some players would find this useful.
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