Phizz (Nov 01, 2020 at 23:56:54 EST): KC 97 wins $10,600

Replies 1 - 2 of 2
W00PW00PW00P wrote
at 12:44 AM, Monday November 2, 2020 EST
Nice hand by KC here. But I think he would've been better off three betting big on the flop. If I call or four bet, he can comfortably shove. Why? Well what could I have been c-betting with?
- Drilled sets (6 combos: 88, 77)
- Two pair (9 combos: 87)
- Over pairs (36 combos: 99+)
- Top pair (24 combos: 89, 8T)
- Flush draws (15+ combos: Ax, Kx, maybe others)
- Straight draws (16 combos: T9)

Getting any of these hands to fold is a win, because he has at most 55% equity, and taking down $3000 100% of the time is better than winning a shoved pot 55% of the time (EV ~1000). So he should be trying to get me to fold.

But what if I don't fold? Well I have a set 6% of the time, and KC would still have 40% equity against that. He has 50% equity against the two pairs showing up 9% of the time and he is ahead (with 55% equity) the 36% of the time I have an overpair. I figure everything else folds. So he is actually coming out EV+ when we end up all in.

But what's best about a huge three bet is that it gets flush draws to fold. Flush draws are common (15% of my hands) and dominate KC (65% equity). Getting them to fold is a huge swing in KC's expected value.

He also gets top pair and straight draws to fold, both of which he's ahead, but that's not a bad thing. If KC's flush lands, he won't be able to extract much value out of either of these type of hands. If KC's straight draw lands, he's probably in quite a bit of trouble against other straight draws.

Anyway, this was all badly explained. TLDR: I think three betting big with the whole world on the flop is good. You will be EV+ against the sets, two pair, and over pairs that call you, and you will bluff off flush draws that have you dominated. You will also avoid sticky situations where you hit either the straight or the flush and either (a) have to try to extract value from a top pair hand which is scared of the flush, or (b) have to call a big bet from someone who probably has a better flush.
elbbep wrote
at 10:19 AM, Monday November 2, 2020 EST
woop, you should have all inned the KK as they rarely win here if you try and play them.
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